Skip to content

Whats wrong with this?

From a bloomberg article.

Public spending in France accounts for 57 percent of GDP, the second-highest among the world’s richest countries that form the OECD, just behind Denmark.

 

I see fat people

Over the weekend I read a link from a friends facebook feed. You can find it here.

http://nutritionresearchcenter.org/healthnews/what-happens-to-your-body-if-you-drink-a-coke-right-now/

Anyway I thought about the fact that I drink a cup of coffee most mornings when I get to work and thats it. The rest of the day is water, even in the evening (unless there is wine involved) Then I thought about how much nonsense I must chuck into my body on the weekend when the brandy and coke binges start. Then my mind began to wander as it usually does and I figured its no wonder people are overweight.

I work in an office. Specifically an IT dept and the company I work for has a canteen where staff can buy breakfast lunch and snacks. I rather enjoy having an 8am scone with a helping of butter and jam, not exactly slimming but given that ill run / swim on my lunch break all is good. However what I notice at the canteen is the size of most of the staff frequenting the place. Sure not all resemble jabba the hut but most are overweight. Not the “has a few extra kilos” but properly overweight. People who could lose 10-20kgs and then sill have those few extra kilos to lose.

This got my mind (oddly) to thinking HOW THE HELL DOES THE HUMAN SPECIES REPRODUCE. To all the fat people reading this, are you turned on by your fat rolls engulfing your partner while doing the dirty? Men with huge stomachs, how do you navigate the myriad of awesome fun sexual positions with that sack of fat. As for the women with your huge thighs .. how do you expect us to find happiness in there?

This is my morning rant, now stop reading this and get your fat ass into the gym. Cause nobody wants you looking like that. 

aaaaah venting. Its so therapeutic.

Divergance

Needless to say I took a lot of flak over the past week and a bit given current love of precious metals. The prices got smacked and in all fairness people called me on reccomendations to buy metals id made. To those people I remind you that I always said these were long term (3-5 years min). Regardless its not fun if you bought something and it goes down in price by 20% overnight.  So the question is, Am I wrong in my investment philosophy? Im not going to launch into a debate about the fundamentals of the  world financial system im just going to take an extract from one of my daily newletters and ask a question.

Why are the only people “selling gold” not actually selling physical metal but selling paper contracts on a futures exchange?

Hong Kong: The Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange — a century-old institution — nearly ran out of bullion Friday. It awaits deliveries from Switzerland and London… on Wednesday

India: “My sales are 50% more than last year,” a dealer in Mumbai’s Zaveri Bazaar tells Reuters, “and we expect good business to continue as weddings will last till July”

Thailand: Many gold shops have closed temporarily. “I took this chance to make minor renovations instead of opening the store only to lose more cash,” one owner tells the Bangkok Post. “Since the week began, the sharp fall in gold prices prompted people to rush to the shop to buy gold. Our gold bullion is out of stock and we are not going to place orders until the global prices settle”

South Africa: Krugerrands are subject to a “massive, massive buying spree” in the words of Glenn Schoeman, chairman of the South African Numismatic Dealers

Australia: “It’s just like the sales after Christmas,” says Nigel Moffatt at the Perth Mint

Dubai: Coins and bars alike are in short supply: “It has become increasingly clear over the course of the past week that the fall in the gold price was triggered by speculative traders operating in the futures markets,” says Aram Shishmanian, CEO of the World Gold Council.

 

If you want to sell your metal let me know. If I dont have the money for it I know plenty of people who do.

– P

Yeah this seems legit too!

SA-Revenue Service reinalinda@re.sars.gov.za via svr6.acornhost.com 
9:18 AM (0 minutes ago)

 
to me
 
 
 
 
Get all your tax refunds on PAYE, VAT, Income Tax and UIF into your account. Confirm your returns payment into your account, Kindly click here to process

I love spam!

occasionally gmail misses a spam mail and today I got this gem. Seems legit 🙂

 

How’s it going?,
I am so happy that you wrote me back! I was waiting every single second for that 🙂 So you are also interested in meeting new interesting people, the most important is to make the first step!
Look, I was going to send you pics of me but the thing is that there is something wrong with my email, so I hang out at this site all the time, http://us.charming-singles.com , there is pretty much everything about me including lots of pictures, you can watch all of them, all you need to do is just make an account, that’s easier than.. whatever the easiest thing is)). There are instant messages so we won’t need to wait for hours for each other! I’m waiting for you, just let me know when you register.
Oh..! I forgot to write my nick, it is ‘lilbeaver23’.
With love,
Cathy

.Image

Whose staying the course?

Recently a chap I know returned to SA from a year and some change stint in London. We did the usual catchup, ask what he liked and didnt and then he looked at me (note this was post a couple drinks) and said “So Skinny hows Gold and Silver working out for you” trying to contain his laughter. Recognizing the bait for what it was I chuckled and replied dead seriously. “For the past 18 months since you left its done pretty much nothing with silver going down” So he asked what I was going todo and I said I was going to carry on doing exactly what I was already doing. “Dollar cost averaging in each month” He then proceeded to tell me about a friend he had made who worked at a trading desk for goldman sachs who wouldnt touch the metals and had made good money in the past 2 year period. 

This is one example but Ive been asked by more than a few people recently why it is that the metals are doing nothing. Last year was a US election which seems to coincide with lower prices but thats long since over and the US has faced the “sequestration crisis” As I write this cyprus’s banks have been closed over a week and a half and yet gold is under 1600 and silver just a hair over 28. So what gives?

My take is this. The powers that be cant afford to let the metals rise in the face of the currency wars and euro crisis thats currently attempting to unfold. If they do more people will simply leave the banking system and move into things (things being real assets including metal) So there is fierce propaganda about how the crisis is contained how the US is growing and the EU really isnt in such a bad state. People are still buying into this.

Lets look a bit deeper tho. Yes the prices of metals is set on the comex but thats a lot of highly leveraged paper. If one is to look at the physical market we see a different picture entirely. Not only are people buying coins and small bars but country central banks bought 17% more gold in 2012 than in 2011 and 2011 was a record year. My point, follow what they doing not what they saying.

I dont think the bottom is in yet and a retest of 1570 and 27/28 in silver seems highly probable but the gold market seems to be getting into a tighter and tighter range. Sometime (I predict in the next  months) the breakout will occur to the up or downside. I believe its going to be to the upside. If you have to ask why then clearly you’re new to this and ill put it simply. Would you rather have paper money in the bank backed by nothing or chunk of gold whose value has never gone to zero in the 4000 years of recorded history? Put another way, gold is the only asset that isnt simultaneously someone else’s liability!

Dont come crying when your government steals your paper assets 🙂

– P

The only this we learn from history is that we dont learn from history

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-09/after-freezing-prices-argentina-bans-all-advertising

Ive been watching whats been going on in Argentina for a while and everything has been playing out in a very predictable manner. The country under reports inflation,  prints money to pay its obligations and cheapens the currency to “promote exports” As history shows this policy never works yet governments, refusing to make the difficult decisions lest they be voted out of office, follow the same failed policies every time.

Japan has openly said its going to print money to cheapen the Yen. The swiss are prattling on about how their currency is too strong, the US are somewhat surreptitious in their role. They are printing huge amounts of money to buy up mortgage backed securities and treasuries. It amounts to the same thing they just sell it on “saving the mortgage lenders” etc etc. You cant devalue your way to prosperity. Its happening in every country around the world. Its in the stealth phase in many countries right now. People are feeling inflation but its not bad enough that they want to do anything about it other than complain.

Gold and silver have done nothing for 18 months now and there is still the talk that the metals bull market is over. To that I call bullshit, when inflation starts to show up in the official numbers watch them fly.

As an aside Venezuela this past weekend devalued the currency by 30% overnight. This will happen in Argentina before long as well and can easily happen in your country.

I know what Im doing to protect my wealth from the paper collapse. Do you?

SA re weights its CPI basket – what does this mean to you

Lets look at this table representing country wide and then a second table for urban areas and discuss

Image

 

This is the table for urban arears

Image

 

These two tables came out of  PDF from stats SA released 6 november while the rest of the world was obsessing over who would win the US presidential election. Something thats pretty pointless because niether candidate is going to make a difference but I digress.

Looking above on both tables something strikes me as plain wrong. The CPI basket is supposed to represent what the average south african spends his money on. Now I dont consider myself the average south african as I am fortunate to be earning more than average (I pay tax and taxpayers are in the minority – I could be wrong tho …) If Im correct in my assumption it means ill have more left over having bought essentials to splurge on holidays, toys, clothes I dont needs, booze and so forth.That said my biggest 3 costs every month in this order are, Food, Rent, Transport (car + Fuel) I think for the average person this is about right although for some older people such as my mother her medical insurance(s) come in at number 1. For me its 4.

Does it seem correct then that if the average person spends most of their money on food, energy, housing and health that the weighting of those should be reduced? (Except housing that did get revised up) The things people need most that are going up most are having their weighting reduced. 

Lets look at this another way. Take your monthly budget. Are you telling me you spend 14.8% on food and  15.1% on “Misc” Items? This folks is how they cook the numbers. They have some other fun tricks like substitution and hedonics as well but for now we’ll just look here at weightings. So when the inflation numbers stay within the SARB’s 3-6% target range and your cost of living is somehow higher you know why. 

The cruel irony here is that they will point to the low inflation numbers as good for the economy and for the people. The poor masses and middle class will lap those headlines up like a cat does milk. Yet THEY are the ones who are worst affected by the stealthy inflationary tax. Money managers will release year en results and say “We grew our clients money by 12% double the rate of inflation” (And thats if you are licky) Meanwhile inflation is closer to 12-15% so your money at best kept pace with inflation. The evil rich however will be buying assets that protect them from this inflation and the gap between the rich and poor will grow. 

So I ended up having a bit of a rant as usual. But my message is simple. Question everything, dont take it at face value. Any correlation between the change in your cost of living and the CPI numbers are purely coincidental 🙂

-P  

 

 

Is todays Groupon good “value” ?

Ive written about ways to own gold before so ill be brief. Ive had a couple of questions this am about one of todays groupon specials.  Link below

http://www.groupon.co.za/deals/national-deals/JD-Numismatic-Corporate/11718743?nlp=&CID=ZA_CRM_1_0_0_290&a=1985

The short summary is you can buy a gold bar as follows.

  • Pay R6 500 for a 10 gram proof-quality minted 24-carat gold bullion bar
  • Pay R35 000 for a 50 gram proof-quality minted 24-carat gold bullion bar
  • Pay R65 000 for a 100 gram proof-quality minted 24-carat gold bullion bar

So is this good value. Lets look at the numbers then other considerations.

An ounce of gold in rand terms is +- R15500 or R498.39 a gram (approx 31.1 grams in an Oz)

Using some basic math (or a calculator) you can deduce that the gold in the bars is worth

  • 4983.90 for the 10 gram
  • 24919.61 for the 50 gram
  • 49839 for the 100 gram.

Ok so thats a lot less than what groupon are offering. But we have forgotten that bars (unlike coins) carry not only a manufacture cost but also are subject to 14% VAT. Lets re look

  • 5681.65 for the 10 gram
  • 28408.36 for the 50 gram
  • 56816.72  for the 100 gram.

Nope there is still a lot of “other” built into their figures. Sure there is a manufacture cost but if you telling me I need to pay just over R8000 for the manufacture of a 100g bar you have another thing coming. I havnt phoned today but Im fairly sure that lakeshoretrading (www.lakeshoretrading.co.za) will be cheaper for the same products. In case you wondering I have no financial interest in lakeshore Ive just dealt with them before and found them helpful and at the time well priced.

Lets contrast the bars to a 1Oz Kruger rand. I ususally add 5-8% above the spot price of gold to arrive at what I think at any time is fair value for a coin. Because today Im feeling cheap Im going to use 5% and also then I only have todo one set of calcs.

so … R15500 * 1.05 = 16275 for a coin. Thats what id offer someone as my top price. That equates to R523 / gram. If we then extrapolate those to bar weights we get this

  • 5230 for the 10 gram
  • 26165 for the 50 gram
  • 52300  for the 100 gram.

Even with the coin mintage factored in its cheaper gram for gram to buy Kruger coins vs bars.

Here’s the fun part. Coins are VAT exempt at this time. They are also easier to resell because they are easy to identify based on look, weight, and diameter. In fact most coin dealers have testers who can tell you in a matter of seconds if its real. Now I cant say with certainty for these bars but whenyou sell large bullion bars you have to get them assayed to make sure they have not been tampered with or are fake bars and yes this isnt a free service. So when you come to sell this bar whose going to buy it and whose going to potentially have to assay it? Ask the groupon supplier if they will buy it back and if so at what price. The spread between buy and sell will depress you. Last week I phoned scoin for kurger rand prices. They were selling at 16200 and buying back at 15200. Thats a very large spread!

Bottom line, yes gold is a good investment, yes these will appreciate in price and protect your currency from the evil central bankers but be informed there are more cost effective ways to buy gold.

Cheers

– P

Brace yourself south africans

I haven’t written in so long because if Im honest Ive been wrapped up in my own selfish world. The last time I wrote I also told people to go long silver which for those that did wasnt a fun ride. The margin accounts looked terrible and rolling over a position in the red doesnt sit well with most traders. However if you held (like I did) you should be looking a lot happier right now. But I dont want to go on about precious metals just yet. I have a genuine worry id like to share.

Most people reading this are likely in the top 5% of earners in south africa. You may not believe it but chances are you are given how many people dont earn and the many who live on the breadline. The stats are something like we have 10mill registered tax payers. 1 mill pay 90% of the tax. So yes you got it good compared to the average south african. But I bet you dont feel that way when you pay your monthly medical aid, your petrol (currently a big gripe) your water and lights and lastly your food. Its the last one I want to draw your attention to. Recently people have griped about the cost of fuel and the levies attached to them. Some people have downsized their cars and others started to carpool and drive less. They didnt do this because they wanted to but because financially they have no other choice. But at the end of the day all of you reading this are still able to feed yourselves without too much hassle. Brace yourself. Yesterday the rand made a 3 month low against the dollar. To many this is insignificant except commodities are prices in dollars. Oil, Maize, Corn, Coal, Wheat … you see where this is going I expect. Your food bill in the next 6-12 months is going to start climbing at an accelerated rate. This will no doubt annoy you and force you to stop the nandos each week. Or maybe you stop shopping at wollworths and goto pick n pay. But for you reading this you’ll be okay. A bit put out but you wont starve. However if you are the average south african this is very bad news. the average south african doesnt drive a car and tho taxi and bus fares will have gone up its less hassle than the food bill. There is going to be an increasing gap between the rich and poor and most of the middle class are heading to the poos side of that gap. 

Start adjusting now while its a choice. You can adapt voluntarily or you can change when finances force it upon you. Thats my first comment. The second is if you haven’t started to put your money somewhere relatively inflation proof I recommend you do so yesterday. The strikes enveloping the country are just the start. The poor class has been waiting for the empty promises of our government and now they are beginning to say “enough is enough” They see a small elite black class emerge while most of them remain penniless. Mine workers wanting minimum wages of R12500, municipal workers wanitng “market related salaries” (Fire them all let them join the mercy of the private sector i say) Its going to get ugly and the politicians will pander and pay up. Taxes ARE going up in the next couple of years and the biggest one will the the stealth inflation tax. 

You know what todo. Precious metals, food and energy. Dont say you weren’t warned!